Closure Costing Uncertainty – A Probabilistic Approach

Presentation description:

This presentation will discuss the two broad types of closure costing uncertainty:

• Estimate uncertainty
• Event uncertainty or risk exposure.

An approach will then be described that models these two types of uncertainty. This approach replaces, or provides a check on, the simplistic percent contingency method often used in closure cost estimates.

The probabilistic approach involves developing range analyses which can be relatively simple or complex depending on the particular circumstances and costing objectives. The range analysis costing data are then processed using Monte Carlo simulation using probabilistic software.

Some hypothetical simple examples will be demonstrated to provide presentation participants with an outline of the approach. Join us for this illuminating presentation on closure cost range analyses. Geoff Byrne is the Principal Consultant at Niboi Consulting, with over 40 years experience in the fields of mine closure planning, risk assessment and cost estimation, this session will provide significant insight into closure costing uncertainty!